From Data to Decisions: Tracking Climate Risk in Coastal Cities
Coastal cities dependent on both inland resources and marine environments face a uniquely complex vulnerability to climate change. Rising seas, intensifying storms, and shifting ecosystems are no longer abstract projections; they are daily realities reshaping economies, infrastructure, and livelihoods. Recognising a need for targeted action, the Stimson Center launched an ambitious effort under the Our Ocean Conference to better understand, and ultimately reduce, climate risk in vulnerable coastal [regions][communities].
Three years on, that commitment delivers data, partnerships, and actionable insights in some of the world’s most vulnerable coastal cities.
Building a Common Language for Risk
At the centre of this initiative is the Climate and Ocean Risk Vulnerability Index (CORVI), a decision-support tool designed to bring clarity to a complex and compounding problem. The climate-related risks that coastal communities face are rarely driven by a single factor. Instead, they emerge from the interaction of environmental pressures, socio-economic dependencies, and governance challenges.
CORVI tackles this complexity head-on by going beyond isolated climate hazards to map how they interact with the social, economic, and ecological conditions already shaping a city’s resilience. Drawing on 100 indicators across 10 categories – from fisheries and ecosystems to governance and economic stability – it builds a place-specific picture of vulnerability that no single metric can capture.
Connecting the dots on risk matters because, for many coastal cities, the challenge has not been a lack of awareness, but a lack of usable, comparable data. CORVI provides a shared framework that policymakers, investors, and development partners can use to prioritise action.
From Commitment to Implementation
A flagship example of CORVI in Africa was announced at the Our Ocean Conference in [XX]. Toamasina is Madagascar’s primary commercial port and a critical economic hub. Here, the CORVI methodology has been applied in full, working in partnership with the Western Indian Ocean Marine Science Association, national ministries, and city authorities, generously supported by the Ocean Risk and Resilience Action Alliance, the Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation, and the U.S. Department of State.
The choice of Toamasina is instructive. Like many rapidly growing coastal cities in Africa, Toamasina faces overlapping pressures:
- Increasing cyclone intensity and flood risk
- Sea-level rise threatening infrastructure and informal settlements
- Expanding urbanisation stretching already limited services
- Degradation of coastal ecosystems that underpin local economies
By bringing these risks together into a single, structured assessment, the CORVI process produces a detailed risk profile that goes beyond diagnosis. It identifies priority actions where investment – whether by governments, investors, and civil society – can deliver the greatest resilience gains.
Expanding Regional Impact
While Toamasina has been the focal point, the broader commitment has extended its reach across the Western Indian Ocean. CORVI assessments and stakeholder engagement have also been carried out in Tanzania and Kenya, creating a growing body of comparable climate risk data across the region.
This regional approach is critical. Climate risks do not respect borders, and shared challenges, whether fisheries decline or coastal erosion, require coordinated responses. By standardising how risk is measured, CORVI is helping to build the foundation for that coordination. Beyond Africa, CORVI has been applied in 16 coastal communities throughout the Caribbean and in the Indo-Pacific.
Unlocking Finance and Action
One of the most tangible signs of progress lies in how the data is being used. The CORVI dataset and accompanying risk profile reports are not academic exercises; they are designed to unlock investment.
For city governments, the CORVI assessments provide a roadmap that highlights where limited resources should be directed. For development banks and private investors, they offer something equally valuable: confidence. Reliable, comparable risk data reduces uncertainty, making it easier to channel finance into resilience projects.
This is particularly important in places like Toamasina, where access to capital has historically been constrained. By filling critical data gaps, CORVI is helping cities make the case for funding local resilience on the global stage.
Where the Commitment Stands
As of 2026, this Our Ocean Conference commitment can be characterised as successfully operational and expanding. It has demonstrated that structured, data-driven risk assessments can directly inform policy and investment.
- The CORVI methodology has been fully deployed in key locations
- A comprehensive series of datasets and a public data portal are in place
- Risk profile reports are informing decision-making at city, municipal, and national levels
- Regional collaboration is strengthening across the Western Indian Ocean
The Road Ahead
The next phase will determine whether this early success translates into lasting impact.
Scaling remains the central challenge. Many more coastal cities face similar risks, but lack the tools to assess and address them. The “core” of CORVI is its locally-led research approach. Expanding CORVI to new geographies, while maintaining data quality and local engagement, will be essential.
Equally, the link between assessment and action must continue to strengthen. Data alone does not build seawalls, restore mangroves, or redesign urban infrastructure. It must be paired with sustained political commitment and financing.
A Model for the Ocean-Climate Nexus
What sets this commitment apart is its focus on the intersection of ocean health and climate risk. Too often, these issues are treated separately. CORVI recognises that coastal resilience depends on understanding how climate change interacts with existing ecological, social and economic systems and vulnerabilities. The goals of CORVI are to fill data gaps, identify cascading climate risks, support informed decisions, avoid costly mistakes, and take advantage of opportunities for sustainable growth.
“Through CORVI, local governments, regional institutions, private sector stakeholders, and community leaders gain data-driven, place-based recommendations to support the development and implementation of resilient coastal adaptation strategies tailored to local realities,” says Carolyn Gruber, Deputy Director and Fellow of the Environmental Security Program at the Stimson Center. “The value of the CORVI analysis is found in the vast amount of locally relevant information it collects, curates, and connects to decision-making from the local to international level.”
CORVI offers a model for future Our Ocean Conference commitments: locally-informed, data-driven, and designed from the outset to inform real-world decisions.
For coastal cities navigating an increasingly uncertain future, the shift from awareness to action may be the most important outcome of all.
